Kuva iki cyorezo, inganda z’ubucuruzi n’inganda zitwara abantu zahoraga mu gihirahiro. Imyaka ibiri irashize, imizigo yo mu nyanja yazamutse, none bisa nkaho igwa mu "giciro gisanzwe" cyimyaka ibiri ishize, ariko isoko nayo irashobora gusubira mubisanzwe?
Amakuru
Igitabo giheruka cyerekana ibintu bine binini ku isi byerekana ibicuruzwa byakomeje kugabanuka cyane:
-Ibipimo byerekana ibicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa bya Shanghai (SCFI) byahagaze ku manota 2562.12, bikamanuka 285.5. amanota kuva mucyumweru gishize, buri cyumweru igabanuka rya 10.0%, kandi yagabanutse ibyumweru 13 bikurikiranye. Yagabanutseho 43.9% ugereranije nigihe kimwe cyumwaka ushize.
-Delury's World Container Freight Index (WCI) yagabanutse mu byumweru 28 bikurikiranye, aho inyandiko iheruka yagabanutseho 5% igera kuri US $ 5.378.68 kuri FEU.
-Icyerekezo cy’imizigo ya Baltique (FBX) Igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa rusange ku madorari y'Abanyamerika 4.862 / FEU, byagabanutseho 8% buri cyumweru.
-Ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bya Ningbo byoherezwa mu mahanga (NCFI) by'ivunjisha rya Ningbo byafunzwe ku manota 1.910.9, bikamanuka 11,6 ku ijana ugereranyije n'icyumweru gishize.
Ikibazo cya SCFI giheruka (9.9) cyakomeje kubona igabanuka ryibiciro byose byoherezwa.
-Inzira y'Amajyaruguru y'Abanyamerika: imikorere yisoko ryubwikorezi yananiwe gutera imbere, gutanga no gukenera ibyingenzi biracyafite intege nke, bigatuma isoko ikomeza kugabanuka ryibiciro byibicuruzwa.
-Ibiciro by’iburengerazuba byagabanutse kugera kuri 3,484 / FEU bivuye ku $ 3.959 mu cyumweru gishize, icyumweru cyagabanutseho $ 475 cyangwa 12.0%, aho ibiciro by’iburengerazuba by’Amerika byageze ku gipimo gishya kuva muri Kanama 2020.
-Ibiciro by’iburasirazuba byagabanutse kugera ku madolari 7.767 / FEU kuva $ 8.318 mu cyumweru gishize, agabanuka $ 551, ni ukuvuga 6,6%, buri cyumweru.
Impamvu
Muri iki cyorezo, iminyururu yatanzwe yarahagaritswe kandi ibikoresho bimwe na bimwe byarahagaritswe mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe, bituma “umuhengeri wo guhunika” mu bihugu byinshi, ibyo bikaba byaratumye amafaranga yoherezwa mu buryo budasanzwe mu mwaka ushize.
Muri uyu mwaka, igitutu cy’ifaranga ry’ubukungu ku isi no kugabanuka kw’ibisabwa byatumye bidashoboka gusya imigabane yari yarabitswe mbere ku isoko, bituma abatumiza ibicuruzwa mu Burayi na Amerika bagabanya cyangwa bakanahagarika ibicuruzwa ku bicuruzwa, kandi “ibura ry’ibicuruzwa” bikwirakwira ku isi.
Ding Chun, umwarimu mu Ishuri Rikuru ry’Ubukungu bw’Isi, Ishuri ry’Ubukungu, Kaminuza ya Fudan: “Iyi mitekerereze ahanini iterwa n’igipimo cy’ifaranga ryinshi mu Burayi no muri Amerika, hiyongereyeho amakimbirane ya politiki, ihungabana ry’ingufu n’ibyorezo, ibyo bikaba byaragabanije cyane ibicuruzwa bikenerwa mu bwikorezi.”
Kang Shuchun, umuyobozi mukuru w’ishami mpuzamahanga ry’ubwikorezi mu Bushinwa: “Ubusumbane hagati y’ibicuruzwa n’ibisabwa byatumye igabanuka ry’ibiciro byoherezwa.”
Ingaruka
Ku masosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa:bahura n’igitutu cyo “kongera kuganira” igipimo cy’amasezerano, bakavuga ko bakiriye ibyifuzo bya ba nyir'imizigo kugabanya ibiciro by’amasezerano.
Ku mishinga yo mu gihugu:Xu Kai, umuyobozi mukuru ushinzwe amakuru mu kigo mpuzamahanga cy’ubushakashatsi ku bwikorezi bwa Shanghai, yatangarije Global Times ko yizera ko ibiciro by’ubwikorezi bidasanzwe mu mwaka ushize bidasanzwe, mu gihe umuvuduko mwinshi cyane muri uyu mwaka wari udasanzwe, bityo ukaba ugomba kuba ari ugukabya amasosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa ku mpinduka z’isoko. Mu rwego rwo gukomeza igipimo cyo gupakira imizigo, amasosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa aragerageza gukoresha igipimo cy’imizigo nk'igikoresho cyo gukemura ibibazo. Intandaro yo kugabanuka kw'ibikenerwa mu gutwara abantu ku isoko ni ukugabanya ibicuruzwa bikenerwa mu bucuruzi, kandi ingamba zo gukoresha igabanuka ry'ibiciro ntizizana icyifuzo gishya, ahubwo zizatera amarushanwa akaze ndetse n'umuvurungano ku isoko ryo mu nyanja.
Kohereza:Umubare munini wubwato bushya bwatangijwe n’ibihangange byoherezwa byongereye itandukaniro riri hagati yo gutanga no gukenerwa. Kang Shuchun yavuze ko umwaka ushize ibiciro by’imizigo bidasanzwe byatumye amasosiyete menshi y’ubwikorezi yinjiza amafaranga menshi, ndetse n’amasosiyete manini y’ubwikorezi ashyira inyungu zayo mu bwubatsi bushya bw’ubwato, mu gihe mbere y’iki cyorezo, ubushobozi bwo kohereza ku isi bwari bumaze kuba hejuru y’ubunini. Ikinyamakuru Wall Street Journal cyasubiyemo Braemar, impuguke mu bijyanye n’ingufu n’ubwikorezi, avuga ko uruhererekane rw’amato mashya azatangizwa mu myaka ibiri iri imbere kandi ko biteganijwe ko umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’amato uzarenga 9% umwaka utaha ndetse no mu 2024, mu gihe umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka ku bicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa bizahinduka nabi mu 2023, ibyo bikazakomeza kwiyongera ku busumbane buri hagati y’ubushobozi bw’isi n’ubunini.
Umwanzuro
Intandaro yo gutwara ibicuruzwa bidahwitse ku isoko ni ukugabanuka kw’ubucuruzi, gukoresha ingamba zo kugabanya ibiciro ntabwo bizana icyifuzo gishya, ahubwo bizatera amarushanwa akomeye no guhungabanya gahunda y’isoko ry’amazi.
Ariko intambara zibiciro ntabwo ari igisubizo kirambye igihe icyo aricyo cyose. Politiki yo guhindura ibiciro na politiki yo kubahiriza isoko ntishobora gufasha ibigo gukomeza iterambere ryabyo no kugera ikirenge mu cyisoko; inzira y'ibanze yonyine yo kwihanganira isoko ni ugushaka uburyo bwo kubungabunga no kuzamura urwego rwa serivisi no kuzamura ubushobozi bwabo mubucuruzi.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-22-2022
