Kuva icyo cyorezo cyatangira, inganda z’ubucuruzi n’iz’ubwikorezi zakomeje kugira akajagari. Mu myaka ibiri ishize, ibicuruzwa byo mu mazi byariyongereye cyane, none bisa nkaho bigabanuka ku "giciro gisanzwe" cy’imyaka ibiri ishize, ariko se isoko naryo rishobora gusubira uko ryari rimeze?
Amakuru
Icyegeranyo giheruka cy’ibipimo bine binini byo gutwara amakontenari ku isi cyakomeje kugabanuka cyane:
-Ishami rya Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) ryahagaze ku manota 2562.12, rigabanukaho amanota 285.5 ugereranyije n'icyumweru gishize, rigabanukaho 10.0% buri cyumweru, kandi ryagabanutseho ibyumweru 13 bikurikirana. Ryagabanutseho 43.9% ugereranije n'igihe nk'icyo umwaka ushize.
-Igipimo cy’ubwikorezi bw’amakontena ku isi cya Delury (WCI) cyagabanutseho ibyumweru 28 bikurikirana, aho icyegeranyo giheruka cyagabanutseho 5% kigera ku madolari y’Amerika 5,378.68 kuri buri FEU.
-Ikigereranyo cy’ibicuruzwa bya Baltic Freight Index (FBX) Global Composite Index kuri US$ 4,862/FEU, cyagabanutseho 8% buri cyumweru.
-Ikigo cy’ubwikorezi bw’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga cya Ningbo Export Container (NCFI) cyafunze ku manota 1,910.9, cyagabanutseho 11.6% ugereranije n’icyumweru gishize.
Nomero iheruka ya SCFI (9.9) yakomeje kugaragaramo igabanuka ry'ibiciro by'ingenzi byo kohereza ibicuruzwa.
-Inzira zo muri Amerika ya Ruguru: imikorere y'isoko ry'ubwikorezi ntiyarushijeho kuba myiza, ibintu by'ibanze ku bicuruzwa n'ibikenewe ni bike cyane, bigatuma isoko rikomeza kugabanuka kw'ibiciro by'imizigo.
-Ibiciro bya US West byagabanutse bigera kuri 3,484/FEU uvuye kuri $3,959 mu cyumweru gishize, bikaba byaragabanutseho buri cyumweru $475 cyangwa 12.0%, aho ibiciro bya US West byageze ku gipimo cyo hasi kuva muri Kanama 2020.
-Amafaranga yo mu Burasirazuba bwa Amerika yagabanutse agera ku $7,767/FEU aturutse ku $8,318 mu cyumweru gishize, agabanukaho $551, cyangwa 6.6%, buri cyumweru.
Impamvu
Mu gihe cy’icyorezo, imiyoboro y’ibicuruzwa yarahagaze ndetse n’ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe birahagarikwa mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe, bituma habaho “ubwinshi bw’ibicuruzwa” mu bihugu byinshi, ibyo bikaba byaratumye ibiciro byo kohereza ibicuruzwa bizamuka cyane umwaka ushize.
Muri uyu mwaka, izamuka ry’ibiciro ku bukungu bw’isi ndetse n’igabanuka ry’ibikenewe byatumye bigorana kugabanya imigabane yari yarabugenewe ku isoko, bituma abatumiza ibicuruzwa mu Burayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bagabanya cyangwa bakuraho ibyo batumizaga, kandi “ibura ry’ibyo batumizaga” riri gukwirakwira hirya no hino ku isi.
Ding Chun, umwarimu mu Ishuri ry’Ubukungu ku Isi, Ishuri ry’Ubukungu muri Kaminuza ya Fudan, agira ati: “Igabanuka ry’ibiciro riterwa ahanini n’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu Burayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, ryiyongereyeho amakimbirane ya politiki, ibibazo by’ingufu n’ibyorezo, byateje igabanuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro mu bwato.”
Kang Shuchun, Umuyobozi Mukuru w’Ikigo Mpuzamahanga cy’Ubushinwa gishinzwe Ubucuruzi bw’Amafaranga n’Ubucuruzi bw’Amafaranga mu Mahanga: “Ubusumbane hagati y’ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe byatumye igipimo cy’ubwikorezi kigabanuka.”
Ingaruka
Ku bigo bitwara abagenzi:bahanganye n'igitutu cyo "kuvugurura" ibiciro by'amasezerano, kandi bavuze ko bakiriye ubusabe bw'abafite imizigo bwo kugabanya ibiciro by'amasezerano.
Ku bigo by'imbere mu gihugu:Xu Kai, umuyobozi mukuru w’ishami rishinzwe ubushakashatsi ku ubwikorezi mpuzamahanga rya Shanghai, yabwiye ikinyamakuru Global Times ko yizera ko igipimo cy’ubwikorezi cyari hejuru cyane mu mwaka ushize cyari kidasanzwe, mu gihe igabanuka ry’ubwikorezi ryihuse cyane muri uyu mwaka ryari ridasanzwe kurushaho, kandi byagakwiye kuba uburyo amasosiyete y’ubwikorezi yakiraga impinduka ku isoko. Kugira ngo hakomeze kubaho igipimo cy’ubwikorezi bw’imizigo, amasosiyete y’ubwikorezi agerageza gukoresha igipimo cy’ubwikorezi nk’inkunga yo kongera ubusabe. Ishingiro ry’igabanuka ry’ubusabe bw’ubwikorezi ku isoko ni ukugabanya ubusabe bw’ubucuruzi, kandi ingamba zo gukoresha igabanuka ry’ibiciro ntizizana ubusabe bushya, ahubwo zizatuma habaho ipiganwa rikomeye n’akajagari ku isoko ry’amazi.
Ku bwo kohereza:Umubare munini w'amato mashya yatangijwe n'ibigo bikomeye by'ubwikorezi byongereye icyuho kiri hagati y'ibitangwa n'ibikenewe. Kang Shuchun yavuze ko igipimo cy'ubwikorezi kiri hejuru cyane mu mwaka ushize cyatumye amasosiyete menshi y'ubwikorezi yunguka amafaranga menshi, kandi amwe mu masosiyete manini y'ubwikorezi yashyize inyungu zayo mu bwubatsi bushya bw'amato, mu gihe mbere y'icyorezo, ubushobozi bwo gutwara ku isi bwari busanzwe buri hejuru y'ubwinshi bw'amato. Ikinyamakuru Wall Street Journal cyasubiyemo Braemar, ikigo gishinzwe gutanga inama ku ngufu n'ubwikorezi, kivuga ko urukurikirane rw'amato mashya ruzatangizwa mu myaka ibiri iri imbere kandi ko igipimo cy'ubwiyongere bw'amato rusange cyitezwe kurenga 9% umwaka utaha no mu 2024, mu gihe igipimo cy'ubwiyongere bw'ubwiyongere bw'amakontenari kizaba kibi mu 2023, ibi bikazarushaho kongera ubusumbane hagati y'ubushobozi bw'isi n'ubwiyongere bw'amato.
Umwanzuro
Ishingiro ry’ubwikorezi butinze ku isoko ni ukugabanuka k’ubusabe bw’ubucuruzi, gukoresha ingamba zo kugabanya ibiciro ntibizana ubusabe bushya, ahubwo bizatera ipiganwa rikomeye no guhungabanya gahunda y’isoko ry’amazi.
Ariko intambara z’ibiciro si igisubizo kirambye igihe icyo ari cyo cyose. Politiki zo guhindura ibiciro na politiki zo kubahiriza amategeko y’isoko ntibishobora gufasha amasosiyete gukomeza iterambere ryayo no kugira aho ahagarara ku isoko; uburyo bwonyine bw’ibanze bwo kwihangana ku isoko ni ugushaka uburyo bwo gukomeza no kunoza serivisi no kongera ubushobozi bw’ubucuruzi bwabo.
Igihe cyo kohereza ubutumwa: 22 Nzeri 2022
